Azerbaijan Airlines

Russia may have mistakenly identified an Azerbaijan Airlines as a Ukrainian attack drone, according to a U.S. official

Fresh evidence suggests that Russian air defenses may have mistakenly shot down an Azerbaijan Airlines passenger jet, U.S. officials said. The crash, which occurred over the Caspian Sea, has left investigators piecing together what happened, as survivors recount the terrifying moments on board.

One survivor, Rahimov, described the chaos, saying he heard an explosion before oxygen masks dropped. Thinking he was moments from death, he recited the Shahada, the Muslim proclamation of faith, and began filming what he thought would be his final moments.

“I already had my mind set that something bad would happen because it was clear the plane had received some damage,” he recalled.

The jet, en route to Grozny, Russia, with 67 passengers on board, faced external interference, according to Azerbaijan Airlines. Despite two failed landing attempts in Grozny, the pilots diverted toward Kazakhstan, where the plane eventually crashed into flames.

While 38 people perished, Rahimov was among 29 survivors. “For a brief moment, we thought we were out of danger,” another survivor recounted. “Then the Caspian Sea appeared, and the plane began to behave unpredictably. The tension was unbearable.”

U.S. officials and aviation experts suggest the plane may have been struck by shrapnel from Russian air defenses. Early indications point to holes in the fuselage consistent with explosive damage, possibly caused by mistaken identity amid drone attacks targeting Grozny.

Russian aviation authorities claim the aircraft was directed to alternative airports before rerouting to Kazakhstan. They have yet to respond directly to allegations of involvement in the crash.

However, experts like Peter Goelz, a former aviation investigator, stress the importance of cockpit voice recordings to shed light on the disaster. “The sound of the explosion and the pilots’ discussions will be critical,” he noted.

Jill Dougherty, a Russia analyst, compared the incident to the 2014 downing of Malaysian Airlines Flight MH17 by a Russian missile, stating, “Russia has a history of obfuscation in such cases. I’m not optimistic they will admit fault here.”

Ukraine’s foreign minister accused Russia of forcing the damaged jet over the sea to conceal evidence. While experts remain cautious about such theories, they acknowledge the challenges of investigating a crash amidst geopolitical tensions.

The black boxes have been recovered and are expected to provide key insights. Kazakhstan, where the crash occurred, will lead the investigation under international aviation protocols. “If the investigation follows these guidelines, we should have answers in about 30 days,” Goelz explained.

Despite surviving the crash, passengers face emotional and physical scars. Rahimov recalled the plane’s descent: “I was thrown up and down, strapped to my seat. Everything went quiet after the impact. I realized we had landed, but the silence was haunting.”

The disaster highlights the risks posed by the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, where drone warfare has intensified. Experts stress the need for transparency to determine accountability and prevent future tragedies.

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